Lula Secures 51.79% To Win Fourth Term Over Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as Brazil's president.

The left-wing leader took 51.79% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, a margin of 4.4 million ballots. Lula becomes the first president since the return to civilian rule in 1985 to win an election after losing the first round. He is also the first in Brazilian history to secure a fourth term, which is scheduled to last until 2030. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday and has already served three non-consecutive terms, from January 2003 to December 2010, and again from January 2023.

The Supreme Court issued a decision to extend polling hours for two hours on Sunday evening just as stations were due to close. Lula's team had argued that voters in São Paulo and Bahia could not reach polling stations because of a lack of buses. Senator Bolsonaro's campaign cited heavy rain in some areas in the south of the country and in São Paulo. The extension meant some stations had already shut and were not able to reopen. Supreme Court President Kassio Nunes Marques, who was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro, confirmed Lula's victory and said the voting extension did not cause issues for the count or the electoral process.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the convicted former president, has refused to recognize the result and called for it to be annulled, describing the outcome as "inexplicable" and "impossible." Electoral law experts say an annulment is unlikely. Fernando Neisser of the Institute of Lawyers of São Paulo said it would be "difficult from a legal standpoint" given the margin of victory, and that it would depend on the narrative his lawyers put forward. Expert Alberto Rollo noted that dates for presidential elections in Brazil are fixed by the constitution, which would add another complication.

The result followed a first round on 4 October in which Flávio Bolsonaro won 47% of votes ahead of Lula's 45%. Lula's campaign focused on boosting turnout after 33 million people did not vote in the first round. Sunday saw the largest drop in abstention between the first and second rounds of a presidential election since 1989.

Lula addressed celebratory crowds in São Paulo, calling the election a "loss for negativity, lies" and stating "long live democracy." He added, "This, my fourth term, will be the best of any president in the history of this country." Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin told him, "You, for the second time, have saved Brazilian democracy." In Brasília, Bolsonaro supporters left the house where their candidate had been watching the result.

During his victory speech, Lula addressed US President Donald Trump's "Donroe Doctrine," which seeks to establish US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Lula insisted that Brazil "will not accept being anyone's backyard." Trump has previously shown support for Bolsonaro's father, Jair, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of a coup attempt following the 2022 elections. Flávio Bolsonaro met Trump at the White House earlier this year.

World leaders have issued congratulations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said "democracy and multilateralism" had won. French President Emmanuel Macron said the two nations should work "in service of a more just world." South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called Lula's victory one for the "global south and progressive forces throughout the world." Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa Azin said the region had "common enemies, shared challenges, and much to gain when we work together."

Lula's new term is set to start on 5 January.