Brazil's Final Poll: Bolsonaro Holds 1.3 Point Lead Over Lula

Flavio Bolsonaro holds a 1.3 percentage point lead over incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the final poll released before Brazil's presidential runoff. The CNT/MDA survey, published on Saturday, places Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent of the vote and Lula at 45 percent. The margin of error for this measurement is 2.2 percentage points. This figure follows a week of tightening numbers, as the same poll had Bolsonaro ahead by a wider 0.9 point margin on the previous release, 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent.

The two candidates concluded their campaigns on Saturday with separate rallies that drew thousands of supporters. Lula, 80, addressed a crowd at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat and standing on a campaign truck, he waved a Brazilian flag while speaking to hundreds of people. He targeted his opponent's relationship with US President Donald Trump, stating, "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag."

Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term in office. The outcome of Sunday's vote will determine whether the left-wing leader remains in power or if Brazil continues a regional trend toward right-wing governance. The incumbent's opponent is Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro finished first in the initial round of voting with 47 percent of the share, slightly ahead of Lula's 45 percent.

Bolsonaro's supporters gathered in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais on Saturday. The crowd included hundreds of motorcyclists dressed in the yellow shirts of the national football team. Ebert Dorigo, a motorcyclist at the event, told the news agency AFP that Lula's Workers' Party had fostered dependence on state welfare. He argued that the country requires a change in direction. "The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said. He claimed that welfare policies have caused some citizens to believe that improvement comes only through hard work.

The campaign has been marked by sharp divisions over economic policy, crime, and the nation's political future. Bolsonaro has pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison places and to reduce government spending. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, served as president from 2019 to 2022. He is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. The two candidates held their final debate on Friday, adopting a calmer tone than previous exchanges while still trading accusations about the economy and their respective records.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult for many voters. She told AFP, "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil."