Bolsonaro and Lula Tie at 50 Percent in Latest Brazil Polls

Brazilian voters face a statistical tie in the presidential runoff as election day approaches. A survey by the Datafolha institute, released on Thursday, places President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 50 percent each. This result erases the four-point lead Bolsonaro held in polls published two weeks prior. The data comes two days before the final vote on Sunday.

The candidates met for a final debate in Rio de Janeiro on Friday, broadcast on TV Globo. The event was less volatile than their first meeting on Sunday, though personal attacks persisted. Lula, 80, attacked Bolsonaro’s plan to cut public spending, comparing the proposal to the methods used by Argentine President Javier Milei. Bolsonaro countered that the incumbent is leaving the country bankrupt. "I'll have the same job here [as Milei in Argentina] because you're leaving the country bankrupt," Bolsonaro said.

Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, accused Lula of allowing organized crime to expand and failing to control the cost of living. Lula responded by questioning the senator’s experience. "He doesn't know Brazil," Lula said. He also claimed Bolsonaro does not understand hunger, prompting Bolsonaro to ask, "Why are things so expensive?"

Tensions rose when Bolsonaro referred to Lula as "Nine Fingers," a nickname referencing a workplace accident. The term is often used pejoratively by Bolsonaro supporters. Lula demanded an apology, which Bolsonaro offered. The exchange continued when Lula labeled Bolsonaro a vigilante, citing allegations of ties to paramilitary groups in Rio. Bolsonaro stated he would classify such groups as "narcoterrorists."

A third heated moment involved a five-year-old girl killed in a shootout involving a police officer. The officer’s lawyer was Bolsonaro. The senator said he does not believe his client was guilty. The mother of the child was present during the debate segment.

Bolsonaro finished first in the opening round of voting on October 4, securing 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 45 percent. The latest polling suggests the margin of victory has narrowed to zero. Both candidates are scheduled to join supporters in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo for a final campaign push before Sunday's election.