Committee faces hard picks with just three undefeated teams left

The College Football Playoff selection committee releases its first official rankings this Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Only three teams in the nation remain undefeated as of Week 9. That number is the lowest for a November entry into the tournament since 2014. Ohio State has dropped multiple games before November for the first time since 2011. The scarcity of perfect records forces the group to examine every detail of the remaining contenders.

Three specific issues drive the conversation. The committee must decide if BYU’s win over Notre Dame outweighs a heavy loss to UCF. They must determine if Ohio State remains a title threat with starting quarterback Julian Sayin injured. They must also separate the two-loss teams in the SEC.

In the SEC, Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Texas are projected to earn bids. Ole Miss has a 61.5% chance to reach the playoff, second only to Georgia. The Rebels suffered a lopsided road loss to Florida after a home win over LSU. LSU is currently the first team out of the top 12. The Tigers outscored Mississippi State and Auburn by a combined 69-17 margin recently. Alabama beat Kentucky while LSU did not, a gap that may help the Tide.

The Big Ten sees Indiana, UCLA, and Ohio State as likely participants. Ohio State sits at No. 10 in projections. The Buckeyes allowed a season-high 30 points and committed 11 penalties in a game against USC where freshman quarterback Luke Fahey played. USC, the first team out, has an 8.7% chance to reach the conference championship. The Trojans play road games against Indiana and UCLA next.

Byu and Utah lead the Big 12. Utah holds an undefeated record despite an 83rd-ranked schedule. BYU’s case is complicated by losses to UCF and a poor showing against Arizona State. Texas Tech is the first team out with a 45.2% chance to reach the Big 12 title game. The Red Raiders lost to Cincinnati by 13 points.

Miami is the sole ACC participant in projections. The Hurricanes lead the nation in strength of record and hold an 18.7% chance to win the national title. Wake Forest is the first team out of the top 12. The Demon Deacons have a No. 43 ranked strength of schedule, which beats Miami, Notre Dame, BYU, and Utah. They lack a win over a ranked opponent and lost to Miami by double digits. Notre Dame has a 79.2% chance to reach the playoff. A loss to Miami at home could hurt their standing given their No. 55 ranked schedule. Boise State represents the Group of 6 with a 61.9% chance to reach the playoff after a one-point win over a rival. UTSA and New Mexico have weaker schedules ranked No. 88 and No. 114.