Serbia votes Sunday as students target 40 percent share

Polls indicate the Student List may capture more than 40 percent of the vote in Serbia’s parliamentary election on Sunday, a figure political scientist Dusan Spasojevic calls a potential landmark for the country's political future. This projection marks a sharp departure from the results of the past fourteen years, during which the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has held power without facing a serious challenge.

The election concludes a campaign defined by a student movement that has protested the government for almost two years. The movement’s origins trace back to November 2024, when a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station, killing 16 people. Students have framed the ballot as a test of institutional accountability and a chance to address corruption.

On Thursday evening, thousands of supporters gathered in Belgrade for the Student List’s final rally. Many attendees had walked to the capital from across the country for days, a journey intended to demonstrate national solidarity. Biology student Arsa Stojanovic told the crowd that the walkers had traversed the country, visiting villages and neighborhoods to build support. Aleksandar Cupic, a professor of transport and traffic engineering and a candidate on the list, described the atmosphere as smelling like freedom. The event ended with a traditional circle dance known as a kolo.

The ruling SNS held its own closing rally a few kilometers away. Party leaders argued that voting for the SNS ensures stability, continuity, and prosperity. They warned that a change in government could lead to chaos and accused opponents of serving foreign interests. Former President Aleksandar Vucic told supporters that rivals had attacked the party with billions of euros on foreign orders.

The campaign has been marked by frequent reports of conflict. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week. These incidents included physical confrontations, attacks on campaigners, and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA also noted that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning.

CRTA reported that the campaign was neither free nor fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms and deepening inequality. The group found that nearly three-quarters of national television airtime for political players went to government representatives. More than 80 percent of coverage concerning the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, and sometimes family holiday packages, to support the SNS.

Authorities have warned of potential unrest following the vote. For weeks, officials suggested that students, allegedly aided by foreign intelligence services, were preparing for street violence. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic stated that a decisive win for either side would be the best outcome, but current polls point to a narrow margin and a likely post-election crisis. He added that a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, as the movement has vowed to defend every vote.

The international response, particularly from the European Union, may influence the aftermath. An EU Commission spokesperson told Deutsche Welle that key recommendations on improving Serbia’s electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process, noting that Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.