Only 5 of 15 GOP-Drawn House Districts Rated Safe for Republicans

Voters in 15 newly drawn congressional districts face a different set of political odds than intended by the mapmakers. Of the 15 districts specifically configured to favor Republican candidates, only five are currently rated as either likely or solid Republican holdings by the Cook Political Report. The remaining districts are classified as toss-ups or lean toward a Democratic victory.

This outcome contrasts with the strategy Republicans employed to protect their House majority. The plan relied on redrawing lines to mitigate the typical midterm losses that affect the party in power. President Trump pressured states with Republican leadership to implement these changes last year. However, the financial stakes are rising, as Republicans may spend millions on seats they previously expected to win with ease.

The discrepancy stems largely from changes in the electorate. NPR correspondent Tamara Keith noted that many lines were drawn based on the 2024 Trump voting base. Since that election, his support has weakened among young voters and Latino communities. Additionally, several Democratic incumbents who were targeted for elimination by the redistricting process have retained their seats and are now competing in the new districts.

A Republican strategist involved in midterm races offered a different perspective on the maps. The strategist, who was not authorized to speak publicly, argued that the redistricting process creates new battlefields but does not dictate outcomes. This view suggests that while the maps changed the geography of the race, they did not guarantee the specific partisan results anticipated by party leadership.

In Brazil, a political shift occurred in the presidential runoff election. Leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term in office. He defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, by a margin of more than 4 million votes. This result marks the first instance since 1989 that a candidate who placed second in the first round of voting has won the presidency.

NPR’s Carrie Kahn described the election as a brake on a right-wing wave in Latin America. She noted that seven conservative presidents have been elected in the region over the past 18 months. Lula’s campaign focused on the message that a return of the Bolsonaro family to power posed an existential threat to Brazilian democracy. This message helped rally voters during the final weeks of the race.

Protests continued across France over the weekend, expanding from student groups to include unions and public-sector workers. More than 100,000 people gathered in Paris, while more than 400,000 participated nationwide. The demonstrators called for increased public spending and raised concerns about growing inequality. Similar movements have emerged in other European countries, including Spain and Serbia.

In Serbia, a student-led movement known as the student-list defeated the party of longtime leader Aleksandar Vucic in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. The victory followed two years of protests demanding accountability and an end to government corruption. Crowds in Belgrade celebrated the result in the streets, marking a shift in the country’s political leadership.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 confirmed measles cases in the United States through October 22. This figure is more than double the total for all of 2025. Cases are particularly concentrated in Pennsylvania. Separately, the CDC data shows the general fertility rate for U.S. women fell by 1% to a record low in 2025, with birth rates declining among women in their 20s but rising among those aged 30 to 45.