Six data points to track in the 2026 midterm races

Midterm elections involve dozens of contests across multiple levels of government, making it difficult to determine the overall direction of the political tide early in the evening. To gauge which party will control Congress, observers will look at specific districts and demographic data that often predict final outcomes.

Results from Indiana and Kentucky are expected to arrive in the 6 p.m. ET hour, while Florida will provide early signals between 7 and 8 p.m. ET. Indiana's 5th and Kentucky's 6th districts, currently held by Republicans, have become more competitive. If these races are close or lean Democratic, it may indicate low Republican turnout.

Florida's 22nd district was redrawn to favor Republicans, yet it is currently held by a Democrat. Florida's 27th district offers a view into Latino voting patterns. President Trump won that heavily Latino district by double digits in the previous cycle.

Republican success in recent decades has often depended on winning at least 46% of independent voters. Before the Trump era, candidates like Mitt Romney won higher percentages of independents but still lost presidential elections. The political realignment has shifted blue-collar white voters toward Republicans and better-educated white voters toward Democrats.

The Michigan Senate race is critical for Senate control. Abdul El-Sayed (D) needs strong support from Black voters in Wayne County to win. Historically, Democratic candidates have needed at least 68% of the vote in that county to secure the state, unless they perform exceptionally well in the suburbs. Sen. Elissa Slotkin won in 2024 with 63% in Wayne County by overperforming in suburban areas.

Turnout among voters aged 18 to 29 drops sharply in midterm elections compared to presidential years. While 43% of registered young voters participate in presidential races, only 21% vote in midterms. Democrats have generally succeeded when they win this group by more than 20 points. In 2022, Democrats lost nine House seats but gained a Senate seat, a result analysts attribute partly to a strong margin among young voters.

In Texas, the margin between Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton will be a key indicator. In 2018, Ted Cruz won by over 200,000 votes despite trailing Abbott by about 400,000. If the gap between Abbott and Paxton exceeds 400,000 votes, it could allow Democrat James Talarico to win the Senate seat. Talarico must also outperform Beto O'Rourke's 2018 totals in key Latino counties in South Texas.

Exit polls will track how many voters identify as Democrats, a number that hit a low of 31% in 2024. Democrats need a higher share of the electorate to succeed. According to the latest NPR poll, 53% of likely voters strongly disapprove of President Trump's job performance. This opposition is expected to unify the left, with races in Michigan serving as tests for progressive candidates in purple districts.