College Football: 30 One-Score Games Mark 50-Year Low in Margin

Thirty conference games in the Bowl Subdivision were decided by a single score last week. Sportradar data identifies this as the highest single-week total recorded in at least 53 years. The figure marks a sharp decline in scoring margins compared to recent seasons.

Through the first eight weeks of the 2026 season, 128 conference games have ended with a difference of eight points or fewer. This total is 32 higher than the count at the same stage last year. It also stands as the highest total at this point in a season since at least 1973. The average point differential in conference play is currently 13.9 points, which is the lowest average on record since the early 1970s.

The trend is concentrated in the Power Four conferences. These four leagues account for 69 of the recent one-score finishes. The Atlantic Coast Conference leads the group, with 20 of its 39 conference games ending within one score. That represents 51% of its scheduled matchups. The Big Ten follows closely with 19 of 38 games, or 50%, finishing in a single score. The Southeastern Conference has seen 17 of 39 games, or 44%, and the Big 12 has had 13 of 33 games, or 39%, end within one score.

Upcoming schedules present further opportunities for close contests. Analysts project a 14-13 victory for Iowa over Wisconsin, a matchup where Iowa has won four straight and outscored the Badgers 79-10 in the last two meetings. Iowa will play without running back Kamari Moulton, who is out for the season. Boise State is picked to beat its opponent 42-40 in a game expected to be decided by the final score.

Other notable matchups include a projected 30-27 win for Northwestern over Oregon. Northwestern is led by first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who previously guided Oregon to a 46-7 record from 2009 to 2012. Arizona carries a five-game win streak to Lubbock to face Texas Tech, a stadium where it has not won since 1935. The pick is a 34-24 victory for Arizona.

The weekly predictions currently stand at 100-39 straight up for the season. Against the spread, the record is 68-69-2. Last week's picks were 10-7 straight up and 8-8-1 against the spread. Teams on byes this week include Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and Houston.