Analysts predict third U.S. Iran war after November votes

A third round of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran could begin after the November 3 midterm elections, according to security experts.

The conflict has already claimed thousands of lives. Western non-governmental organizations report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in that country. The U.S. military has lost 21 service members, primarily in strikes on Gulf bases. More than 70 Israelis are also listed among the dead. Casualties have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He previously served as an intelligence official in the Israeli military for over 20 years. Citrinowicz predicts the next phase will target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communication lines, including internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz. He also expects Iran to use its land army for limited attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the U.S. economy.

The two nations have already fought in two separate wars over the last 18 months. The first started in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. Fighting resumed in February following a U.S. military buildup and Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial ships. These actions have raised global energy costs. President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms.

Iran is seeking specific terms to end the conflict. These include sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to restart talks for weeks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation would likely come from proxies in Yemen and Lebanon, targeting economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military punch will force Iran to capitulate.

The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, according to reports from The New York Times. It is not yet known if President Trump will approve it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces voters in a close race in the coming days. He has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation combined with an Iranian development could lead to an unnecessary attack.

Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy remains possible but has been narrowed by maximalist U.S. aims. He stated that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure if given a clear, limited diplomatic exit. Sadjadpour added that asking Iran to change its identity would not succeed.