Votel: New Iran Strikes Weaken Targets but Lack End Goal

A new wave of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran may degrade the country's military capabilities, but it is unlikely to end the current war, according to retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel.

Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, currently chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He spoke with NPR correspondent Leila Fadel about the potential objectives of a post-election bombing campaign. Votel noted that many likely targets have already been struck in previous operations. Iran has demonstrated an ability to rebuild those capabilities, he said. While fresh strikes can punish Tehran and buy time, they have not yet altered the Iranian government's calculations regarding the war's trajectory.

Fadel observed that the Iranian government has adopted a harder line and shown greater willingness to execute bold counterattacks. Votel responded that the primary requirement for success is a clear objective. Washington must define what the end state looks like and determine how it will declare the war over. In Votel's view, the core issues are the uranium enrichment program and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He argued that military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure must all align to achieve that goal. Military force is only one component of national power, he stated.

Votel identified the financial front as the area with the most visible progress. He cited the blockade and various sanctions as adding pressure on Tehran. He referenced reporting that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil. While this approach requires time, Votel noted there is definite movement in that direction.

The general acknowledged that U.S. aims have been difficult to read. He said much of the strategy centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to allow oil and commerce to flow freely. This action would help lower gas and diesel prices in the United States. The second major concern is Iran's nuclear program. Votel also noted that Iran uses proxies to create regional instability, including the Houthis on the Arabian Peninsula. However, he described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.

On military readiness, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial. The ability to strike is not in question. The potential constraint is missile defense. Earlier reporting has described heavy pressure on defensive interceptors that protect U.S. forces and regional partners. Votel assessed that offensive capability is where it needs to be, while defense may face a constraint.