Statistics Lebanon survey shows 66.4% of Shi'ites back state control of Hezbollah arms

A September poll indicates that a majority of Lebanon's Shi'ite community now favors transferring Hezbollah's arsenal to the national government.

The survey, conducted by Statistics Lebanon among 800 respondents, found that 66.4% supported handing the group's weapons over to the Lebanese state. In contrast, 29.6% preferred that Hezbollah retain its arms. The results were reported in mid-October by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

Respondents also expressed strong preference for state authority in security matters. According to Kataeb.org, 71.1% said decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should hold a larger role in shaping the country's future. Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces was high, with 78.5% saying they trusted the military. An additional 51.1% identified the army as the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security, compared to 16.5% who chose Hezbollah.

Opinions on Hezbollah's recent performance were divided. Some 67.4% stated that the group had failed to meet its goals or only partially achieved them in the war with Israel. A further 42.1% voiced disappointment, anger, or concern about the leadership and the conflict's consequences. Despite this criticism, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the organization, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust. KAN reporter Roi Kais noted that the support networks and status Hezbollah has provided to the sect continue to sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

The findings contrast with earlier data. In a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That study found 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, while only 7.9% supported giving up its weapons. More than 90% opposed ties with Israel. Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that Hezbollah's influence relies on social and economic networks, political power, and historical marginalization. They said weakening the group requires a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf partners.

Local signs of wariness have emerged in recent months. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. The group has suffered major military and leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war broke out in March 2026 and caused heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon.