Israel Must Prepare for Early US Aid Cutoff, Former Ambassador Warns

Dr. Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States and current deputy minister in the Prime Minister's Office, warned on November 3, 2026, that Israel must prepare for an early termination of American military aid. Speaking on 103FM, Oren addressed President Donald Trump's recent announcement that the US intends to end this support ahead of the scheduled timeline. This development shifts the expiration of the current memorandum of understanding, originally set under the Obama administration, by approximately two years.

Oren stated that the decision relies on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recommendation. He observed that military aid has become a central issue in Democratic campaign rhetoric, creating a political climate that favors accelerated cuts. The former ambassador noted that while the announcement could serve as a trial balloon or a definitive decision, Israel can no longer assume it has a decade to transition from military assistance to a strategic partnership model. He emphasized that Washington, not Jerusalem, dictates this timeline, and political shifts in the US Congress could further accelerate the process.

According to Oren, Democrats have previously voted to end military aid. He warned that if they gain control of one or both chambers of Congress, pressure to cut off intelligence assistance and other forms of cooperation would intensify. He argued that reducing Israel's military capabilities would undermine American interests. Oren described Israel as a distinct strategic asset, unlike smaller European nations, noting that the United States has only one ally willing to fight shoulder to shoulder with it. He cited the country's technology and location in a sensitive region as key factors that enhance American security.

Oren discussed changing demographics in the United States, pointing to Michigan as an example where the Muslim population now exceeds the Jewish population. He noted that one-third of Jews in New York voted for Zohran Mamdani. He also stated that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee is no longer the most powerful lobby in Washington. These shifts indicate a changing environment for pro-Israel advocacy. Oren expressed surprise at the prospect of immediately stopping aid while Israel is engaged in active conflict. He suggested that an arrangement where Trump supports Netanyahu in exchange for a pause in military operations before midterm elections might be more logical than a full relinquishment of aid in exchange for an endorsement.

The former ambassador highlighted the diplomatic importance of US support, noting that American vetoes in the United Nations Security Council serve as a critical political shield against sanctions. He also warned against replacing American military production with Chinese alternatives. Oren described this as crossing a clear red line for Washington. He recalled meetings with several US administrations that insisted Israel choose between American and Chinese defense systems. Oren, who initially opposed the memorandum of understanding due to opportunity costs, said he had long advocated for purchasing specific assets like B-1 or B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles. He noted that these requests were often denied while Israel's sales to China faced restrictions.