Israel Election: Record Arab Turnout Tests Netanyahu's Grip

Palestinian citizens of Israel cast ballots in record numbers on Tuesday, a surge that may prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from forming a governing coalition.

Participation rates in several Arab towns exceeded 70 percent, a sharp increase from the 45 to 65 percent range typical in recent Israeli elections. This shift threatens to unseat Netanyahu and his right-wing allies.

Preliminary reports indicate that the Joint List and the United Arab List (Ra’am) could secure up to 17 seats in total. This number is sufficient to stop Netanyahu from reaching the 61 seats required for a majority in the Knesset.

Netanyahu’s campaign targeted the Arab vote, with the prime minister posting AI-generated images of Arab voters to his base. The Joint List described these images as a misleading scene. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir also criticized the community during their campaigns.

These tactics appear to have backfired, motivating previously indifferent residents to vote. Hussein Manna, a resident of Majd al-Krum in the Upper Galilee, said the community was provoked by government actions, including settler attempts to establish an outpost on their land. "They know very well what awaits us if this government returns to power," Manna said.

Ahmad Tibi, head of the Arab Movement for Renewal, stated that the primary goal is to defeat the government of Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir. Tibi warned that opposition leaders have largely ruled out an alliance with Arab parties, a stance he called a racist position. In exchange for support, Arab parties demand a government that excludes Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and addresses issues such as crime, home demolitions, and security.

Al Jazeera bureau chief Walid al-Omari described the election as fateful for Israel’s identity. He noted that if Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party wins 53 seats and Ra’am wins eight, a coalition of 61 could be formed. "If Netanyahu’s coalition remains in power, Israel will move more towards racism and towards extremism," al-Omari said.

Right-wing activists were deployed to polling stations in towns including Taibe, Tira, and Qalansawe. Tibi said these activists obstructed the process to create long lines, hoping voters would tire and leave. Instead, he observed the community’s determination to stay until voting was complete.

Academic Mohannad Mustafa argued that Netanyahu views the Arab vote as illegitimate, citing racist fearmongering during the campaign. He linked this atmosphere to the 1995 assassination of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, which Netanyahu had previously tied to reliance on Arab lists.

The election outcome carries weight for the region, given that Netanyahu’s term included the war in Gaza, which has killed more than 74,500 Palestinians, as well as military engagements in Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Political analyst Tariq Hamoud noted that a government without Netanyahu could affect these ongoing conflicts. Analysts point to the October 7 security failure as the event that opened the door to these wars.