15 Knesset seats could break Israeli election deadlock

Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is projected to lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset, yet the Jewish Israeli opposition is also expected to fall short of the 61 seats required to govern. This leaves the decision in the hands of Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are forecast to secure between 12 and 15 seats. The outcome of next week’s election will therefore hinge on how this small bloc votes and which party it chooses to support.

Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta'al party, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a critical tool for removing the current government. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down," he said. His party is part of the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties that includes the Islamist Ra'am party. Most polls suggest the Jewish opposition bloc will not reach the necessary threshold without these seats.

Historically, forming a coalition with Palestinian politicians has been politically difficult. Most Jewish Israeli opposition parties have ruled out such an alliance, while Netanyahu and his allies have used slogans like "Bibi or Tibi" to make the idea seem toxic. Israel has had only two Palestinian ministers in its history: Raleb Majadele, who served for two years, and Issawi Frej, who served for just over a year. Despite this, promises to avoid Palestinian parties have been broken before. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now in the opposition. Netanyahu also opened coalition talks with Abbas in the past.

Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its position once the results are in. "At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two," he said. He is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote, reflecting the view that the math of the Knesset will force a hand.

For Palestinian politicians, the choice is often between difficult options. Tibi described the decision as one between Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir on one side, and the opposition on the other. "It's between bad and worse," he said. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution, most strongly oppose a Palestinian state, and most back the settlement movement in the West Bank.

Fear is a central motive for many voters. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said the biggest motivation is the fear of another four years under far-right ministers. He cited the destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel. "Voters understand the danger if these criminals come back to rule again," he said. The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 residents.

Distrust of the political system has depressed turnout in the past. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the October 7 attacks, a ruling widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. A motion to disqualify Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some Palestinians, like Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system that treats their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation. "There's no clarity about what comes afterwards," Iraqi said, "but that's how powerless I think a lot of people feel."