Trump's Texas Hispanic Base Fractures

Donald Trump’s record-breaking support among Texas Hispanic voters is receding as the November 3 midterm elections approach. New surveys conducted since late summer reveal a majority of these voters now disapprove of the president and favor Democrats over Republicans.

The shift is most visible in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that delivered Trump an unusual 55% of the Hispanic vote in 2024. That performance was a record for a Republican presidential candidate. Recent polling suggests much of that goodwill has evaporated due to the administration’s border enforcement strategies.

Father Roy Snipes, a priest in the La Lomita Catholic Chapel, preached to about 30 mostly Hispanic worshippers about the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He criticized the detention of neighbors, stating there is no good excuse for such measures. Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project shows Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, the largest share of any state.

The border area saw over 2.5 million apprehensions in a single year under President Joe Biden. Trump campaigned on ending those crossings, and numbers are now at their lowest in decades. However, the method of enforcement has drawn criticism. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, said most voters accept deporting criminals but question the removal of productive, law-abiding citizens.

Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and leader of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to vote Democrat in November. He noted that his acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to four or six. This decline illustrates the local distinction between securing the border and the execution of the crackdown. Republican consultant Mike Madrid observed that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents.

Republicans had hoped the 2024 shift was permanent, prompting early redistricting efforts. Texas’s 15th congressional district was redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans a theoretical 18-point majority. Current polls, however, show a Democratic lead of five to six points. Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer, is focusing on the local economy rather than the national party brand. He told voters the area is distinct from major coastal cities.

Cost of living remains a top concern for many residents. At a local avocado festival, voters blamed the president for rising prices. Republican campaigners acknowledge they are struggling to mobilize support. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that national political headwinds are real despite Trump’s border efforts.

A modest swing back to Democrats could reshape races beyond Texas. In the state itself, such a shift could put a US Senate seat in play, a position Democrats have not held for more than 30 years.